Notes

Outline

A Futurist Looks at Higher Education James L. Morrison Professor of Educational Leadership UNC-Chapel Hill

Objectives What are the signals of change that will affect higher education in the 21st Century? What do these signals portend for higher education I will be your strategic intelligence officer

Agenda The tool: Environmental scanning The analysis: Change drivers The data: social, economic, technological The implications

Change Drivers The Maturation of America The Mosaic Society Globalization Economic Restructuring Information Technology

Older Americans to Experience Fastest Growth (1990 to 2000)

Distribution of US. Population by Race and Origin (1900-2050)

Immigration Between 1970 and 2000 New York City’s population shifted from 2/3 white to 1/3 In 1970, 5% of U.S. residents born elsewhere; in 1996, 10%

The Enrollment Pipeline

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Projections

Supply and Demand

Higher education must contain costs while serving a larger population.

Our students must be able to function effectively with people of different ethnic backgrounds and cultures in order to be successful in the future

Economic Globalization Economic Restructuring Downsizing

Globalization Movement of capital, products, technology, information continue at record pace Global economy Regional free trade Multinational corporations Economic competition increase

Economic Continued organizational downsizing corporate governmental educational Virtual companies Outsourcing Responsibility-centered management Increased number of home-based businesses

Since 1980 the U.S. contingent workforce—temps, self-employed, consultants—increased 57%

95% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs.

Fading are the 9-5 workdays, lifetime jobs, predictable, hierarchical relationships, corporate culture security blankets, and, for a large and growing sector of the workforce, the workplace itself (replaced by a cybernetics “workspace”).

Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping is the norm.

Implications Globalization Economic Restructuring

Graduates Must Be Able To Function in a global economy for job success in the 21st century Access, analyze, process, and communicate information Use information technology tools effectively Engage in continuous, independent learning

Technology

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What Lies Ahead in Technology Diminution Net PC Web TV Simulations Virtual reality Voice input Expert systems WWW; Web course mgt Low-earth-orbit satellites Wireless networks Video conferencing

The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and microchips are doubling in performance power every 18 months.

You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker. It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976 Cray supercomputer.

Today’s average consumers wear more computing power on their wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.

Beginning in 1991, companies spent more money on computing and communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial, mining, farm, and construction equipment.

Factoid Beginning in 1997… more email than snailmail was sent more computers than cars were sold the Internet economy became the 3d largest

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Factoid By 2002, the market for online learning software, services, and content will reach $15 billion By 2003, corporations will conduct 96% of training online

Web Learning Platforms Blackboard.com 300,000 students in 1,000 institutions Adding 40 institutions/month Convene.com 50,000 students have completed 250,000 courses WebCT 3.6 million students in 97,000 courses in 800 colleges in 40 countries

Peter Drucker on Change

Network Learning Technologies are Transforming Core Production and Delivery Processes Package knowledge Deliver knowledge Access knowledge Acquire knowledge

Corporate Learner-Centered Model Self-contained units Embedded processes Deliver material Assess understanding Manage property rights Point to relevant material Modules embedded in courses embedded in curriculum

Learner-Centered Model Utilities Provide Embedded assessment Advising Testing out Monitoring to assess progress Transcript of real-time performance

Today’s Students Technologically sophisticated Expect user-friendly services Want accessible, available education at their time, place, and medium of choice Want dependable one-stop or no-stop service that is high tech but personable

The Changing Higher Education Environment New competition Old-line institutions have discovered satellites and the Internet Traditional “service areas” fair game State “master plans” out New for-profit educational providers Certification monopoly at risk employers concerned about competency employers relying less on diplomas Outcomes assessment coming on line Western Governors University Virtual universities Financial aid for virtual learning Corporate universities

How Will Higher Education Education Look Tomorrow? Partnerships with colleges and other educational service providers for continuing education Boundary-less service area From technology integration to technology infusion Multimedia courses developed by dispersed teams Faculty roles: from actor to director

Transitions Transition from learned infrastructure to learning infrastructure; from campus-centric to consumer-centric

Summary “Every day seems to bring the dawn of a new era” To anticipate the future, we must identify signals of change To shape our future, we must interpret and act on these signals

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