Notes

Outline

The University is Dead. Long Live the University! James L. Morrison Professor of Educational Leadership UNC-Chapel Hill

Higher Education in the 21st Century

Objectives What are the signals of change that will affect higher education in the coming decade? Do these signals portend a paradigm shift in higher education?

Agenda The tool: Environmental scanning The analysis: Change drivers The data: social, economic, technological The implications

Change Drivers Demographics Globalization Economic Restructuring Information Technology

Trends By 2010, 43% of adults will be age 50 or older. By 2010, 50% of all college students will be adults. By 2004, 100 million Americans will take part in adult education programs (1995 = 76 million).

Graduates Must Be Able To Function in a global economy for job success in the 21st century Access, analyze, process, and communicate information Use information technology tools effectively Engage in continuous, independent learning Work as a team member

Today’s Students Technologically sophisticated Expect user-friendly services Want accessible, available education at their time, place, and medium of choice Want dependable one-stop or no-stop service that is high tech but personable

Economic Globalization Economic Restructuring Downsizing

Globalization Movement of capital, products, technology, information continue at record pace Global economy Regional free trade Multinational corporations Increased economic competition

B-2-B Commerce Projections

Economic Continued organizational downsizing corporate governmental educational Virtual companies Outsourcing

Digital Age 60% GNP related to IT industries now. In 5 years Most new jobs will occur in computer related fields (and 80% of the jobs do not even exist yet). 50% of workers will be employed in industries that produce or are intensive users of information technology.

Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping is the norm.

Information Technology

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What Lies Ahead in Technology Diminution Net PC Web TV High Definition TV Electronic books Simulations Virtual reality Expert systems WWW; Web course mgt Low-earth-orbit satellites Wireless networks Video conferencing

The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and microchips are doubling in performance power every 18 months.

You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker. It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976 Cray supercomputer.

Today’s average consumers wear more computing power on their wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.

Beginning in 1991, companies spent more money on computing and communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial, mining, farm, and construction equipment.

Factoid Beginning in 1997… more email than snailmail was sent more computers than cars were sold the Internet economy became the 3d largest

"Market for online corporate training" Market for online corporate training: $11 billion by 2003 In 1999, Sun employees enrolled in 3,500 Web-based courses

Network Learning Technologies are Transforming Core Production and Delivery Processes Package knowledge Deliver knowledge Access knowledge Acquire knowledge

Digital Revolution

Digital Revolution

Digital Revolution

Digital Revolution

Digital Revolution

The Numbers Internet use doubles every 90 days Internet use is going up at the rate of about 140 persons a second and almost 72 million a year Number of e-mails sent on an average day: 10 billion in 2000; 35 billion expected in 2005

Signals Cable and phone companies are consolidating to provide interactive multimedia programming Educational courses and programs are being produced by corporations UK Higher Ed Funding Counsel estimates online market at 71 billion US$ eU

Corporate Universities 1990, 400; 2000, 2,000 Number of students increasing 30% per year By 2003, corporations will conduct 96% of training online By 2010 corporate training universities > higher education institutions

Corporate training and distance learning will “wipe out” many of the 700 MBA programs that issue 100,000 MBAs each year. Robert Hamada Dean, Graduate School of Business, Univ of Chicago May, 2000

Trends Amount spent on IT-related e-learning in 2000—$1.7 billion Amount spent on IT-related e-learning in 2003—$5.3 billion Fuel: progress in networking, collaboration software, multimedia

Trends U.S. C & U’s will spend 2.7 billion this year on IT infrastructure (28% increase) 72% of C & U’s offer distance education (48% in 1999) 34% provide an online degree program (15% in 1998) 38% provide Internet connections in dorms

"The 'do nothing' universities will not survive. Universities need to adapt rapidly to the top-down influences of globalization and the new technologies, as well as the bottom-up imperatives of serving the local labor market, innovating with local companies, and providing professional-development courses that stimulate economic and intellectual growth." British Education Secretary David Blunkett

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The Changing Higher Education Environment Certification monopoly at risk employers concerned about competency employers relying less on diplomas Outcomes assessment coming on line Western Governors University New competition Traditional “service areas” fair game New for-profit educational providers Old-line institutions have discovered satellites and the Internet

"University professors “branding”" University professors “branding” themselves Universities requiring laptops of entering students Universities requiring online admissions Universities requiring online faculty applications

Old Paradigm       New Paradigm Student role = empty vessel Degrees based on credit hours Information transfer via classrooms Student role = knowledge creator Degrees based on competency exams Information transfer in students’ rooms

Old Paragidm New Paradigm Semester/tri-mester/quarter Set enrollments (e.g., once a year) Act independently Varying lengths of time for learning modules Continuous enrollments (e.g., once every two weeks) Act with partners

Old Paradigm New Paradigm Faculty lecture Faculty responsible for content, media, assessment Faculty role = actor Faculty use projects, shared learning Faculty work as part of instructional team Faculty role = director

Summary “Every day seems to bring the dawn of a new era” To anticipate the future, we must identify signals of change To shape our future, we must interpret and act on these signals