The University is Dead.
Long Live the University!

	James L. Morrison
	Professor of Educational Leadership
	UNC-Chapel Hill

Higher Education in the 21^st Century

Objectives

	What are the signals of change that will affect higher education in the coming decade?
	Do these signals portend a paradigm shift in higher education?

Agenda

	The tool: Environmental scanning
	The analysis: Change drivers
	The data: social, economic, technological
	The implications

Change Drivers

	Demographics
	Globalization
	Economic Restructuring
	Information Technology

Trends

	By 2010, 43% of adults will be age 50 or older.
	By 2010, 50% of all college students will be adults.
	By 2004, 100 million Americans will take part in adult education programs (1995 = 76 million).

Graduates Must Be Able To

	Function in a global economy for job success in the 21st century
	Access, analyze, process, and communicate information
	Use information technology tools effectively
	Engage in continuous, independent learning
	Work as a team member

Today’s Students

	Technologically sophisticated
	Expect user-friendly services
	Want accessible, available education at their time, place, and medium of choice
	Want dependable one-stop or no-stop service that is high tech but personable

Economic

	Globalization
	Economic Restructuring
	Downsizing

Globalization

	Movement of capital, products, technology, information continue at record pace
	Global economy
		Regional free trade
		Multinational corporations
	Increased economic competition

B-2-B Commerce Projections

Economic

	Continued organizational downsizing
		corporate
		governmental
		educational
	Virtual companies
	Outsourcing

Digital Age

	60% GNP related to IT industries now.
	In 5 years
		Most new jobs will occur in computer related fields (and 80% of the jobs do not even exist yet).
		50% of workers will be employed in industries that produce or are intensive users of information technology.

Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping is the norm.

Information
Technology

Slide 16

Slide 17

Slide 18

What Lies Ahead in Technology

	Diminution
	Net PC
	Web TV
	High Definition TV
	Electronic books
	Simulations
	Virtual reality
	Expert systems
	WWW; Web course mgt
	Low-earth-orbit satellites
	Wireless networks
	Video conferencing

The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and microchips are doubling in performance power every 18 months.

You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker. It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976 Cray supercomputer.

Today’s average consumers wear more computing power on their wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.

Beginning in 1991, companies spent more money on computing and communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial, mining, farm, and construction equipment.

Factoid

	Beginning in 1997…
		more email than snailmail was sent
		more computers than cars were sold
		the Internet economy became the 3d largest

"Market for online corporate training"

	Market for online corporate training: $11 billion by 2003
	In 1999, Sun employees enrolled in 3,500 Web-based courses

Network Learning Technologies are Transforming Core Production and Delivery Processes

	Package knowledge
	Deliver knowledge
	Access knowledge
	Acquire knowledge

Digital Revolution

Digital Revolution

Digital Revolution

Digital Revolution

Digital Revolution

The Numbers

	Internet use doubles every 90 days
	Internet use is going up at the rate of about 140 persons a second and almost 72 million a year
	Number of e-mails sent on an average day: 10 billion in 2000; 35 billion expected in 2005

Signals

	Cable and phone companies are consolidating to provide interactive multimedia programming
	Educational courses and programs are being produced by corporations
	UK Higher Ed Funding Counsel estimates online market at 71 billion US$
	eU

Corporate Universities

	1990, 400; 2000, 2,000
	Number of students increasing 30% per year
	By 2003, corporations will conduct 96% of training online
	By 2010 corporate training universities > higher education institutions

Corporate training and distance learning will “wipe out” many of the 700 MBA programs that issue 100,000 MBAs each year.

	Robert Hamada
	Dean, Graduate School of Business, Univ of Chicago
	May, 2000

Trends

	Amount spent on IT-related e-learning in 2000—$1.7 billion
	Amount spent on IT-related e-learning in 2003—$5.3 billion
	Fuel: progress in networking, collaboration software, multimedia

Trends

	U.S. C & U’s will spend 2.7 billion this year on IT infrastructure (28% increase)
	72% of C & U’s offer distance education (48% in 1999)
	34% provide an online degree program (15% in 1998)
	38% provide Internet connections in dorms

"The 'do nothing' universities will not survive. Universities need to adapt rapidly to the top-down influences of globalization and the new technologies, as well as the bottom-up imperatives of serving the local labor market, innovating with local companies, and providing professional-development courses that stimulate economic and intellectual growth."

	British Education Secretary David Blunkett

Slide 39

The Changing Higher Education Environment

	Certification monopoly at risk
		employers concerned about competency
		employers relying less on diplomas
	Outcomes assessment coming on line
		Western Governors University
	New competition
		Traditional “service areas” fair game
		New for-profit educational providers
		Old-line institutions have discovered satellites and the Internet

"University professors “branding”"

	University professors “branding” themselves
	Universities requiring laptops of entering students
	Universities requiring online admissions
	Universities requiring online faculty applications

Old Paradigm       New Paradigm

	Student role = empty vessel
	Degrees based on credit hours
	Information transfer via classrooms
	Student role = knowledge creator
	Degrees based on competency exams
	Information transfer in students’ rooms

Old Paragidm New Paradigm

	Semester/tri-mester/quarter
	Set enrollments (e.g., once a year)
	Act independently
	Varying lengths of time for learning modules
	Continuous enrollments (e.g., once every two weeks)
	Act with partners

Old Paradigm New Paradigm

	Faculty lecture
	Faculty responsible for content, media, assessment
	Faculty role = actor
	Faculty use projects, shared learning
	Faculty work as part of instructional team
	Faculty role = director

Summary

	“Every day seems to bring the dawn of a new era”
	To anticipate the future, we must identify signals of change
	To shape our future, we must interpret and act on these signals