Future Scan 2000 and Beyond


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Table of Contents

Future Scan 2000 and Beyond

Future Scan 2000 and Beyond

Tools of Anticipatory Management

Purpose of Anticipatory Management

Gather Strategic Intelligence

The Tool: Environmental Scanning

Change Drivers Forces of Change

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Future Scan 2000 and Beyond

Social Trends

The New Realities of Tomorrow

World Population

Since Mid-Century

Share of World Population That is Urban

Urban Population in Industrial & Developing Countries

Average Annual Growth Rate of World Population

Number of Older Americans to Experience Fastest Growth (1990 to 2000)

High Immigration & Fertility May Spur Faster Rate of Population Growth

The Baby Boom Is For Real

Minority Children to Increase Most Rapidly in 1990’s...

Percent Distribution of US. Population by Race and Origin

Over One-Third of Homeless Are Families With Children

% of Illegitimate Births

Non-Family Households to Become Increasingly Common

The Shrinking Middle Class


The Social Nature of the Issue

Social Nature of the Issue

Social Nature of the Issue

Economics of the Issue

Economics of the Issue

More young people are attending school...

More young people are completing high school and college

Top problems in public schools 1940 & 1990

More College Students to Be Older One in Four Will Be Age 35+ By 2001

Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000

State and Federal Prison Populations Continue to Rise

What are your nominations in the social area? What are the implications for your business?


What Lies Ahead in Technology

Development of the integrated circuit (1950s) has permitted an ever-increasing amount of information to be processed or stored on a single microchip. This is what has driven the Information Revolution.

Communication technology is radically changing the speed, direction, and amount of information flow, even as it alters work roles all across organizations. Case in point: the number of secretaries decreased 521,000 from 1987 to 1993.

Since 1983, the U.S. work world has added 25,000,000 computers. The number of cellular telephone subscribers has jumped from zero in 1983 to 16,000,000 by the end of 1993.

The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and microchips are doubling in performance power every 18 months.

Computer power is now 8,000 times less expensive than it was 30 years ago.

In 1991, companies spent more money on computing and communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial, mining, farm, and construction equipment.

Say you are going to a party. You buy a greeting card that says “Happy Birthday” when opened. The next day the card is tossed into the trash, throwing away more computer power than existed in the entire world before 1950.

You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker. It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976 Cray supercomputer.

Today’s average consumers wear more computing power on their wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.

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The Web as a Learning Tool

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The Web as Publisher

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The Web as a Service Tool

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What nominations/comments do you have? What are the implications for your business?


During the early 1900’s, 85% of our workers were in agriculture. Now agriculture involves less than 3% of the workforce.

In 1950, 73% of U.S. employees worked in production or in manufacturing. Now less than 15% do.

The Department of Labor estimates that by the year 2000 at least 44% of all workers will be in data services (e.g., gathering, processing, retrieving, or analyzing information).

Goods Sector Job Growth in Thousands, 1988-2000

Projected Employment Growth, 1990-2005

Jobs Requiring College Education

Ethnic Makeup of Projected New Additions to the Labor Force Through Year 2000

Women to Comprise Increasing Share of U.S. Work Force

Temporary Workers: A Growth Industry

From 1980 to 1994, the U.S. contingent workforce—temps, self-employed, consultants—increased 57%

In 1991, nearly 1 out of 3 American workers had been with their employer for less than a year, and almost 2 out of 3 for less than 5 years.

Percent of Firms Downsizing by Business Category

Of the 100 largest U.S. companies in 1900, only 16 exist today.

During the decade of the 80’s, 46% of the companies listed in the “Fortune 500” disappeared.

Average Workforce Reduction by Business Category

Job Elimination by Employee Level

Going are the 9-5 workdays, lifetime jobs, predicable, hierarchical relationships, corporate culture security blankets, and, for a large and growing sector of the workforce, the workplace itself (replaced by a cybernetics “workspace”).

Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping will become the norm.

Working Out of House and Home

More U.S. Households Own Computers

Gross World Product

World Exports

Exports from Industrial & Developing Countries

Trade Continues to Be Dynamic Element in World Economy

Foreign Direct Investment in U.S. Continues to Rise

Research and Development Spending by U.S. Firms Increasing Faster Overseas

What are your nominations? What are the implications for your business?

Environmental Trends

Stages of Environmentalism I

Stages of Environmentalism II

Stages of Environmentalism III








Global Warming Projected to Accelerate - 1980-2050

Global Average Temperature

World Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning

World Automobile Fleet

World Bicycle & Automobile Production

Wind Generating Capacity

World Photovoltaic Shipments

Average Factory Price for Photovoltaic Modules

World Electrical Generating Capacity of Nuclear Power Plants

World Nuclear Reactor Construction Starts


What are your nominations in the social area? What are the implications for your business?


State Governments Fund Increasing Share of Public Education

National Health Care Costs Projected to Escalate Sharply

Estimates of HIV Infections Worldwide

Health Spending

State Spending On Medicaid Could Double By 1995

U.S. and Soviet Nuclear Warheads

What are your nominations in the social area? What are the implications for your business?

Change Drivers Forces of Change

The Maturation of America

The Mosaic society

Redefinition of Individual and Societal Roles

The Information-Based Economy



Personal and Environmental Health

Family and Home Redefined

Implications for Anticipatory Educational Managers

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Author: James L. Morrison

Email: morrison@unc.edu

Home Page: http://horizon.unc.edu/horizon