Future Scan 2000 and Beyond

2/10/97

Development of the integrated circuit (1950s) has permitted an ever-increasing amount of information to be processed or stored on a single microchip. This is what has driven the Information Revolution.

Communication technology is radically changing the speed, direction, and amount of information flow, even as it alters work roles all across organizations. Case in point: the number of secretaries decreased 521,000 from 1987 to 1993.

Since 1983, the U.S. work world has added 25,000,000 computers. The number of cellular telephone subscribers has jumped from zero in 1983 to 16,000,000 by the end of 1993.

The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and microchips are doubling in performance power every 18 months.

Computer power is now 8,000 times less expensive than it was 30 years ago.

In 1991, companies spent more money on computing and communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial, mining, farm, and construction equipment.

Say you are going to a party. You buy a greeting card that says “Happy Birthday” when opened. The next day the card is tossed into the trash, throwing away more computer power than existed in the entire world before 1950.

You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker. It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976 Cray supercomputer.

Today’s average consumers wear more computing power on their wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.

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Hypertext

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The Web as a Learning Tool

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The Web as Publisher

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The Web as a Service Tool

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What nominations/comments do you have?What are the implications for your business?

Economic

During the early 1900’s, 85% of our workers were in agriculture. Now agriculture involves less than 3% of the workforce.

In 1950, 73% of U.S. employees worked in production or in manufacturing. Now less than 15% do.

The Department of Labor estimates that by the year 2000 at least 44% of all workers will be in data services (e.g., gathering, processing, retrieving, or analyzing information).

Goods SectorJob Growth in Thousands, 1988-2000

Projected Employment Growth, 1990-2005

Jobs Requiring College Education

Ethnic Makeup of Projected New Additions to the Labor Force Through Year 2000

Women to Comprise Increasing Share of U.S. Work Force

Temporary Workers: A Growth Industry

From 1980 to 1994, the U.S. contingent workforce—temps, self-employed, consultants—increased 57%

In 1991, nearly 1 out of 3 American workers had been with their employer for less than a year, and almost 2 out of 3 for less than 5 years.

Percent of Firms Downsizing by Business Category

Of the 100 largest U.S. companies in 1900, only 16 exist today.

During the decade of the 80’s, 46% of the companies listed in the “Fortune 500” disappeared.

Average Workforce Reduction by Business Category

Job Elimination by Employee Level

Going are the 9-5 workdays, lifetime jobs, predicable, hierarchical relationships, corporate culture security blankets, and, for a large and growing sector of the workforce, the workplace itself (replacedby a cybernetics “workspace”).

Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping will become the norm.

Working Out of House and Home

More U.S. Households Own Computers

Gross World Product

World Exports

Exports from Industrial & Developing Countries

Trade Continues to Be Dynamic Element in World Economy

Foreign Direct Investment in U.S. Continues to Rise

Research and Development Spending by U.S. Firms Increasing Faster Overseas

What are your nominations?What are the implications for your business?

Environmental Trends

Stages of Environmentalism I

Stages of Environmentalism II

Stages of Environmentalism III

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES - 1995-2010

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES - 1995-2010 - AIR

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES - 1995-2010 - WATER

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES - 1995-2010 - WASTE

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES - 1995-2010 - BIODIVERSITY

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES - 1995-2010 - LAND USE

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES - 1995-2010 - PRODUCTS

Global Warming Projected to Accelerate - 1980-2050

Global Average Temperature

World Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning

World Automobile Fleet

World Bicycle & Automobile Production

Wind Generating Capacity

World Photovoltaic Shipments

Average Factory Price for Photovoltaic Modules

World Electrical Generating Capacity of Nuclear Power Plants

World Nuclear Reactor Construction Starts

Pollution

What are your nominations in the social area?What are the implications for your business?

Political

State Governments Fund Increasing Share of Public Education

National Health Care Costs Projected to Escalate Sharply

Estimates of HIV Infections Worldwide

Health Spending

State Spending On Medicaid Could Double By 1995

U.S. and Soviet Nuclear Warheads

What are your nominations in the social area?What are the implications for your business?

Change DriversForces of Change

The Maturation of America

The Mosaic society

Redefinition of Individual and Societal Roles

The Information-Based Economy

Globalization

Economic

Personal and Environmental Health

Family and Home Redefined

Implications for Anticipatory Educational Managers

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Author: James L. Morrison

Email: morrison@unc.edu

Home Page: http://horizon.unc.edu/horizon

Future Scan 2000 and Beyond

2/10/97

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