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Dubai 2007 |
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Forecasting Impacts: An Elementary Scenario Analysis
In this exercise, we developed elementary scenarios by using impact networks to generate the possible effects of a given event. The initial event is written in a circle in the middle of the page; each first-order impact is written in a circle that is linked to the initial event by a single line; each second-order impact is written in a circle that is linked to the first-impact by a double line; each third-order impact event is written in a circle that is linked to the second-order impact event by a triple line; and so on. The impact networks developed in the workshop are as follows (note, no reports were received from Groups 1, 2, or 5, but photos were taken of all group products): Group 1 View Group 1's Impact Network.
Group 2 View Group 2's Impact Network. Group 3 Said Alrabiey Event: VW sets up manufacturing plant in Dubai Impact if event occurs 1. Creation of new jobs 2. Plant construction 3. Increase in support services (e.g., health, food facilities) 5. Environmental impact 6. Family migration to Dubai education workshop. 7. Increased logistical provisions 8. Development of new technologies View Group 3's impact network. Group 4 Fahad Mohammad Al Naime’ Qatar Event: Authorities announce the recognition of distance education in Middle East First Order Impact:
Second order Impact:
View Group 4's impact network.
Group 5 View Group 5's Impact Network. |
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