In this exercise, we developed elementary scenarios by using impact networks to generate the possible effects of a given event. The initial event is written in a circle in the middle of the page; each first-order impact is written in a circle that is linked to the initial event by a single line; each second-order impact is written in a circle that is linked to the first-impact by a double line; each third-order impact event is written in a circle that is linked to the second-order impact event by a triple line; and so on. The impact networks developed in the workshop are as follows (note, no reports were received from Groups 1, 2, or 5, but photos were taken of all group products):

Group 1

View Group 1's Impact Network.

Group 2

View Group 2's Impact Network.

Group 3

Said Alrabiey
Gerlinde Surkar
Satish Gopinathan
Mohd Alhamadi

Event: VW sets up manufacturing plant in Dubai
[What are the signals that the event could occur?]

Impact if event occurs

1. Creation of new jobs
Higher demand for education

2. Plant construction
Creates new jobs

3. Increase in support services (e.g., health, food facilities)
Growth of business development
Increase in demand for education

4. Ancillary units established
Creation of more jobs
Increase in demand for education

5. Environmental impact
Drain of natural resources
Support university research into this problem
Pollution increased
Increased support for university-based research

6. Family migration to Dubai education workshop.
Brain drain from other gulf states
Increased population density in Dubai

7. Increased logistical provisions
Increased transportation congestion
Increased support of university-based research into this problem

8. Development of new technologies
Increased college and university collaboration
Creation of new knowledge or programs
Increased research funding

View Group 3's impact network.

Group 4

Fahad Mohammad Al Naime’ Qatar
Mohammad Sayed Ali Osman Egypt
Yousaf Abdul Ghaffar Bahrain
Mukhtar Ahmed Pakistan

Event: Authorities announce the recognition of distance education in Middle East
[This event is not clear. What does “recognition” mean? Approval of an online degree program?]

First Order Impact:

• Increase in Enrollment
• Development of High Tech Infrastructure
• Requirement of Faculty and Staff Training
• Efforts to create IT Friendly Culture
• Convention Institutions need to make adjustment
• Proactive response from Industry

Second order Impact:
Less Faculty requirement

• Better Labor Force which lead to Better Development of the countries
• Better Stander Operating Procedures
• Expectations will change
• Need new regulations

View Group 4's impact network.

Group 5

View Group 5's Impact Network.