	Dubai 2007


	Potential Events That Could Affect the Future of Middle Eastern Higher Education Events are unambiguous and confirmable. When they occur, the future is different. Event identification and analysis is critical in anticipatory planning. It is important that an event statement be unambiguous; otherwise, it is not helpful in the planning process because (a) it is unclear what may be meant by the statement (i.e., different people may understand the statement differently) and (b) we have no clear target that allows us to derive implications and action steps. Also, it is important for credibility purposes that in presenting the events that you consider critical to your organization, that you also present the signals that the events could occur. Below are the top five events identified by each group. Group 1 [Don't have a report from Group 1.] Group 2 Dr. Said Hamad Alrabiay, Oman Prof. Dr. M. Qasim Jan, Pakistan Dr. Hamad Al Alawi, Oman Dr. Faridah Ali, Kuwait Prof. Dr. Mukhtar Ahmed, Pakistan 1. Drastic Drop in Oil Revenues Signals that the event could occur: a. Breakthrough in technology to find substitute for energy source b. Major discoveries of oil elsewhere c. Lowering of GCC production d. Over production of oil globally. 2. US Attacks Iran [What are the signals that this event could occur?] 3. Regime Change [What does this mean? (Need to specify what regime and what change.) What are the signals that this event could occur?] 4. Iraq Divided into Three Parts [What are the signals that this could occur?] 5. Iran Tests Atomic Bomb [What are the signals that this event could occur?] Group 3 Dr. Abdul-Rahim Sabouni (UAE) Dr. AYousef Adul Ghaffar, Bahrain Dr. Jajid Aldaihani, AKuwait Mr. Iorahim Jamch, UAE 1. US Attacks Iran Signals that this event could occur a. News media coverage b. US ships in Gulf region 2. Oil prices drop to $10 a barrel Signal: Increase use of alternative energy 3. GCC States stop funding higher education Signal: Some already have stopped funding 4. Peace accord signed between Palestinian authority and Israel Signal: Anticipated in news media 5. GCC stock markets crash Signal: Drastic declines in 2005-2006 Group 4 Dr. Esam Agamy Dr. Mohd Al Hamadi Mr. Satish Gopinathan Prof. Michael Irving Prof. Dr. Harald Jorch 1. Government of India offers 10,000 free university places to Middle Eastern students [What are the signals that this event could occur?] 2. Government(s) slash higher education funds by 50% [What are the signals that this event could occur?] 3. Israel (US) attacks Iran (nuclear bomb on Esfehan) [Iran conflict] [What are the signals that this event could occur?] 4. New conservative government bans use of English in all educational institutions [What are the signals that this event could occur?] 5. Long range passenger planes bypass ME transit hubs [What are the signals that this event could occur?] Other events considered: Minimum wage law passed for all workers Private higher education providers increase four-fold All government higher education providers are privatized All private higher education providers are nationalized Industry clusters drive higher education providers Contribution from intellectual capital surpasses 40% of GDP Oil and gas revenues drop by 30% Group 5 Dr. Abood Al-Sawafi Dr. Saleh Al-Nassar Dr. Fahd Mohanadi Dr. Khalid Kamal Naji 1. End of the Oil Era Signals that this event could occur: a. increased price of oil b. intensive research for finding alternative energy sources 2. Universities Without Borders Signals that this event could occur: a. increased number of virtual libraries b. increased number of virtual research networks c. increased number of online courses 3. Think Arabic; Speak English Signals that this event could occur: a. increased number of English only schools and programs b. increased demand for having English as the official language 4. Own Your Private Satellite Channel [Consider: 60% of the regions’ colleges own their own satellite channel] Signals that the event could occur: a. the increased number of private satellite channels b. the decreased cost of tele-communication 5. The DRAGON is awakened Signals that the event could occur: a. increased demand for Chinese products b. improved quality of Chinese products


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